As of June 2, 2009, the WHO reported 19,273 confirmed cases of, and 117 confirmed deaths from, H1N1 flu across 66 countries.  The WHO continues to keep the Pandemic Phase at 5.  Dr. Keiji Fukada, Assistant Director-General ad Interim for Health Security and Environment at the WHO, spoke at a recent press conference about the pattern of the H1N1 virus and the transition to Phase 6.   There appear to be three basic epidemiological patterns emerging:

1. Advanced spread of the virus: This has occurred in North American countries (United States, Mexico, and Canada) where activity may be increasing then decreasing, but overall, the H1N1 virus continues to spread in these countries
2. Virus in transition: In certain countries in Europe, Asia, and South America, as well as Australia, the WHO is seeing larger number of cases with some spread into the community, but most of the cases thus far appear to be related to institutions and travelers.
3. Limited spread: These are countries that continue to have limited case counts. Confirmed cases appear to be related primarily to travelers and some institutions, with limited spread to the community

The WHO stated they suspect we are getting closer to moving to Phase 6 because the virus continues to spread across the world, and countries that are in transition may evolve to more community-wide infections.  Based on a series of meetings with over 30 experts and public health staff from 23 countries, the WHO continues to use the geographical spread of the virus as a basis for moving to a pandemic Phase 6.  However, the experts also recommended including an assessment of severity with the transition to Phase 6 to help countries and regions that may be facing different outbreak levels. 

Based on the recommendations from the experts, the categorization of severity would entail the strength of the virus and its ability to harm people, as well as the vulnerability of certain populations, such as those with chronic conditions or those living in poverty.  Since the severity will vary by region, the WHO would provide guidance to health authorities to provide local assessments by offering assistance to help people understand what Phase 6 means and the relationship between the phase and the severity.  These communications will evolve over time as the H1N1 situation continues to develop.

EGA will continue to keep you updated on this situation at its website, http://www.ega-inc.com.  As experts in pandemic flu preparedness, EGA can assist you with any questions you have about preparing your organization for a pandemic.