It has been four weeks since the WHO declared that a global pandemic of the H1N1 virus was under way.  As of July 6, 2009, the WHO had reported 94,512 confirmed cases of H1N1 flu across more than 100 countries, with 429 confirmed deaths. 

In a recent interview, Dr. Anne Schuchat from the CDC candidly acknowledged that the confirmed cases in the U.S. are just "the tip of the iceberg".  The CDC is operating on the assumption that the real number of cases is around one million.  The process of confirming H1N1 in every case of a typical "flu-like illness" is not considered a cost effective use of resources and would not impact any health outcomes for the majority of cases.  The majority of the cases affect people 25 years or younger. 

As predicted, the H1N1 is now moving to the Southern Hemisphere with the onset of their winter.  Argentina, Chile, and Australia are beginning to show spikes of influenza activity. One concern is that after a sojourn in the Southern Hemisphere, the flu may return to the Northern Hemisphere with a vengeance during our normal winter flu season. 
 
Vaccine development is underway.  Safety and efficacy studies are expected to be reported over the summer.  The CDC and other agencies around the world have moved on to identifying the highest risk populations as the targets for vaccination and reviewing the resources that will be needed to rapidly deploy the vaccine when and where it is most needed. 
 
While we are in a pandemic, the H1N1 virus has not proved to be as infectious nor as virulent as was initially feared.  Most knowledgeable observers caution that the virus can still change and that we are not out of danger yet.  The public can expect to witness outbreaks where young people congregate this summer, such as summer camps.  We can also expect an extension of the outbreak into the Southern Hemisphere as it passes into the heart of their winter. The initial impression that H1N1 is like a routine flu, with a few days of misery followed by a full recovery, has thus far held true. We recommend continuing to practice good hygiene and not spreading the flu to your friends and coworkers.

EGA will continue to keep you updated on this situation at its website, http://www.ega-inc.com.  As experts in pandemic flu preparedness, EGA can assist you with any questions you have about preparing your organization for a pandemic.